Steelers injury report: Will the team’s demise result from T.J. Watt’s departure?

The Dolphins, who were missing their offensive leaders Raheem Mostert and Jaylen Waddle as well as their defensive leaders Bradley Chubb and Jaelan Phillips, gave the Bills a fortunate break last week in Miami. Due to a knee injury sustained against Baltimore, they will not be facing T.J. Watt, the NFL’s top sacker in 2023, this week.

With 19 sacks, 86 pressures (seventh most in the league), 68 tackles, one interception, four forced fumbles, and three recoveries—one of which he recovered for a touchdown—Watt has a strong argument for being the top defensive player in the league.

Josh Allen stated, “I know they ruled Watt out, but it doesn’t mean we’re in the clear,” before naming a number of Steelers who will pose challenges for the Buffalo offense.

Still, the Steelers will face a difficult position without Watt. Due to injuries to the back seven, particularly the loss of safety Minkah Fitzpatrick, they have not been very good at defending the pass. If Watt doesn’t cause chaos, Allen might have the extra moment he needs to choose a path or advance through his development.

Watt’s snap counts will be transferred to players like Nick Herbig (three sacks) and Markus Golden (four), which will force Alex Highsmith (seven sacks) to shoulder an even greater burden.

Allen stated, “They have a really good defensive line.” Cam Hayward is among the finest interior players in this game. He is a creature of nature. Highsmith is playing at the best level in the league right now, and he’s on the left edge. We will therefore be very busy. It’s win or lose, so we need to make sure we have a solid game plan and are communicating effectively.

It is evident from the figures that offensive success, which is defined as maintaining drives and scoring, is closely related to the team’s capacity to convert on third down.

It should come as no surprise that the Bills led the NFL in third-down conversion percentage (49.8%), scoring sixth in the league (26.5) and totaling fourth-most yards (374.5). The only playoff teams outside of the top 11 are the Texans (19th), Steelers (22nd), and Browns (29th). The top 11 teams in third-down conversion rate are all in the postseason.

And if there was ever a case to be made—and I have always felt this—that offense wins games more often than defense, offensive success on third downs amply illustrates this. Of the 14 playoff teams, only four are ranked in the top 10 at stopping third downs; the Browns are ranked first, followed by the Texans in fifth place, the Ravens in seventh place, and the Chiefs in tenth place. The Bills allowed a 38.6% third-down conversion rate, which put them in 19th place.

“To stop the offenses that are remaining in the playoffs right now, a strong defense is going to be necessary,” Allen stated.

On third downs, the Steelers had trouble on both sides of the ball. They were ranked 21st on defense (39.1%) and 22nd on offense (36.6%), so the Bills may be able to take advantage of this because Allen is the most potent third-down converter in the league.

Of his career-high 57 rushing first downs, 32 came on third-down plays. Of those, maybe none was larger or better than Allen’s 15-yard scramble that turned a third-and-13 on the Bills’ last drive against Miami. Allen completed 55 third-down passes that resulted in a first down.

“Isn’t that a component of his greatness?” Joe Brady, the offensive coordinator, stated. He is an erasing human. He manages to complete it. With eight yards remaining and others touching him, he manages to secure the first down. He is that person. That explains why we are where we are, don’t we?