Kevin O’Connell made his exit known.
Minnesota Vikings head coach Kevin O’Connell declared his retirement earlier today
Greetings from the concluding volume of our series on the future of the Vikings. This time, we examine the timeframe and the many perspectives that the team may have on their current predicament, which includes an open quarterback position and a rising division. Now let’s get started.
“Rebuilding competitively”
A general manager doesn’t usually describe the team’s plans as clearly as Kwesi Adofo-Mensah did with his definition of the “competitive rebuild.” The owners of the building felt that the 2021 roster was ruined by drama and disorder, so when Adofo-Mensah and Kevin O’Connell took over in 2022, they decided to give them another shot.
Thus, they decided to extend Kirk Cousins, bring back Patrick Peterson, add veteran Za’Darius Smith, and give the majority of the Zimmer/Spielman roster another chance. The Vikings had a spectacular start to the season, defeating Green Bay in Week 1 and going on to win 8-1, which featured a memorable comeback victory over the Buffalo Bills. The Vikings finished the season 5-3 after facing the New York Giants in the first round of the playoffs, but reality struck during the second half of the season.
It was difficult to respond to the prevalent question of whether the last-dance strategy for 2022 was worthwhile. Despite having many great moments, the Vikings finished with a negative point differential and were unable to go past Wild Card Weekend. Instead of being content with a great regular season, the objective was to contend for the Super Bowl. In the long run, it would have been preferable if they had started a long-term plan on Day 1.
A difficult 2023 season was the consequence of delaying the demolition of the old to make way for the new. When they parted ways with Eric Kendricks, Dalvin Cook, Adam Thielen, Za’Darius Smith, and Peterson, the “rebuild” element hit particularly hard. After a 4–4 start to the season, it appeared as though they could be able to split the difference and make it to the playoffs while seeing several young players develop into excellent starters. But those preparations took a detour due to Cousins’ ruptured Achilles. The ineffective play of the backup quarterback led to the thin defense’s final collapse due to injuries.
The Vikings have been at a turning point over the past two years. Even if they extend Cousins and make every effort in free agency, the “competitive rebuild” has not placed them in a position to be Super Bowl favorites going into 2024. However, they intend to select their next quarterback because they have too much skill to lose in 2024.
Is it better to sign Cousins for a two-year contract, expect to make the playoffs in 2024, and actually contend for draft picks and signings in 2025? Is the plan to choose a quarterback in the draft and look for a backup who can keep them competitive in 2024, and then use the cap room produced by Cousins’ departure to spend lavishly in the offseason before 2025?
How will they meet everyone’s present needs if they keep their cousins? They need to add: defensive lineman, linebacker, cornerback, running back, third wide receiver, left guard, edge rusher (x2), and cornerback.
What may be reasonably expected for 2024 if they contract a bridge quarterback and pick a quarterback? Would ownership be willing to wait out another 7–10 season if it meant long-term improvement? Up until the word “rebuild” is used, “competitive rebuild” sounds fantastic.
It appeared like all roads led to the 2024 draft class until the brass took over, giving Cousins the shortest term available and then declining to extend him again during the previous summer. Spending their best draft pick since 2015 on a quarterback would be a symbolic gesture, but it’s also plausible that everyone was alarmed by the 2023 season’s 7-10 record and is wary of the pressure that could accompany yet another non-competitive year.
The Vikings’ whole future trajectory will depend on how they understand their position in the “competitive rebuild” plan that was conceived from the very beginning. And when they decide on Cousins’ future in purple in the middle of March, we will know the answer.
During the 2023 season-ending press conference, general manager Kwesi Adofo-Mensah (left) and head coach Kevin O’Connell of the Vikings (right) were present.
Photo by permission of the Minnesota Vikings
The separation
It was hard to overlook the NFC North this year, even if the owners and decision-makers of the Vikings were among the millions of people watching the NFC playoffs. With a roster primarily composed of recent draft picks, the Detroit Lions led the San Francisco 49ers by 14 points at halftime. Meanwhile, the Green Bay Packers, led by rookie quarterback Jordan Love, almost defeated the 49ers with a performance akin to a movie star in the second half of the season and during the Packers’ playoff victory in Dallas.
The Vikings may have to play in one of the toughest divisions in the NFL for years to come given that the Chicago Bears selected players DJ Moore and Montez Sweat using their cap space, as well as the fact that they drafted picks No. 1 and No. 9 overall. The Packers were the youngest team in the NFL in 2023; the Lions are keeping their excellent offensive coordinator, Ben Johnson; and Chicago, with the first pick, has a chance to turn over its troubled quarterback history.
For the Vikings to make decisions this offseason without taking their opponents’ strengths into account would be insane.
It’s not necessary to discard Cousins in favor of a longer-term strategy in order to consider the schedules of division opponents, but they would need to have a clear plan for the rest of the squad. Cousins has consistently produced strong numbers and high PFF ratings over the years, but he hasn’t been able to elevate them to the top due in part to shortcomings in other areas, like the defensive or offensive lines. The depth chart has frequently been likened to a game of whack-a-mole, when a repair is made for one spot and then another problem appears.
Of course, a rookie starter or bridge quarterback might also have difficulties in this difficult division. If they decide to pursue a rebuilding strategy, it would take a lot of factors coming together for them to finish 2024 somewhere other than last in the North. That might yield large rewards in the coming years and enable them to overtake their competitors in North America, but in the near run, it would strain the organization.
“Whole Rams”
Going “Full Rams,” as Adofo-Mensah famously put it, would be one method to overcome their formidable division rivals and get out of the “competitive rebuild” mentality. He talked about the risks associated with the 2021 Rams’ strategy, which includes giving up a significant amount of draft capital in order to get Von Miller, Jalen Ramsey, and Matthew Stafford. After winning the Super Bowl in 2021, they had two seasons of 15-19 results. If they had lost in the postseason, Los Angeles would have been utterly destroyed.
With Justin Jefferson, Jordan Addison, TJ Hockenson, Christian Darrisaw, and Brian O’Neill, the Vikings have the offensive talent to go “Full Rams” around Cousins if they so choose. In addition to looking for any viable trades for players who are unhappy, they may back up a Brink’s truck to Danielle Hunter’s house, as well as any other free agent who could assist them right away. Because of the NFL pay cap, any team can offer players more money later on if they’re willing to accept the associated consequences.
The Vikings may see their 2023 performance under defensive coordinator Brian Flores as evidence that they only need to add a few elite players to get back to where their offense was in Week 8, when Kirk Cousins tore his Achilles tendon, and they would have a legitimate Super Bowl candidate.
That is quite serious wishful thinking that could have disastrous long-term effects.
What is their time limit?
The Vikings’ ability to consider 2025 as a potential season to return to contention will depend on how much time ownership is prepared to invest in the team’s leadership. Adofo-Mensah reportedly signed a four-year contract at the time of his appointment, which is short by industry standards, but everyone in control in the NFL is paid on a year-to-year basis. The Wilfs would need to think that the people in charge can get them from point A to point B without attempting to evade the process through free agency or trade hacks in order to slow down the “competitive rebuild.”
There are instances where teams have benefited from and stuck with decision-making through thick and thin. Three of Kyle Shanahan’s first four seasons in San Francisco ended with six victories or less. They will be back in the Super Bowl next week after winning 35 games in the previous three years. The Bengals were twice rebuilt by Marvin Lewis around a rookie quarterback. After missing the playoffs in Sean McDermott’s first season, Buffalo had a 6-10 season and went on to win the division every year with Josh Allen.
The Vikings appear to have the fortitude to persevere through ups and downs inside the TCO Performance Center. According to an NFLPA survey, the players highly value their culture, and they have enough offensive skill to make a rookie successful.
Although wealthy owners aren’t typically recognized for their patience or trustworthiness, this ownership has recently undergone reconstruction. After going 7-9 in 2014 and drafting Teddy Bridgewater, the Vikings swiftly turned things around in 2015.
