With eight teams left in the NFL after this point in the season, the market is rather competitive. That doesn’t mean most games conclude around the final score, despite what the general public believes; rather, it means oddsmakers get increasingly adept at determining the theoretical “middle” of public opinion. At this moment, opinions about the Tampa Bay Bucs are at an all-time high. My initial assessment of Tampa Bay as one of the NFL’s least successful teams this season was completely altered by Baker Mayfield and a driven, seasoned team. The Bucs are in the NFC Divisional Round of the playoffs after winning six of their previous seven games and eliminating the #1 seed from the previous season in only one week. Who would have predicted that?

Tampa Bay’s offense is adept at weathering storms because of the Mayfield effect, and the team is built around a solid defense led by one of the NFL’s sharpest defensive minds, Todd Bowles. For the entire season, Mayfield has been the Bucs’ spark plug; he was the rejuvenator they needed after losing their QB1 to the legendary Tom Brady by just one year. In addition, Mayfield’s performance against the Birds last week was a fantastic demonstration of his fighter mindset and composure in the end zone (22 for 36, 337 yards, 3 touchdowns, no INTS).

The Bucsopponent is the issue with this spread, not the team itself. This Sunday, Tampa Bay will face a significant increase in competitiveness, and I don’t think it’s ready for it. Naturally, we could only review data from earlier in the season, such as the Detroit Lions’ dominance over the Bucs in Tampa during Week 6, but we require a larger sample size than that of just one game. In all honesty, the Bucs present a difficult opponent for the Lions, particularly in Michigan. Only the Packers and the Seahawks (in overtime during Week 2) could match Detroit’s running backs and wide receivers when it comes to speed on their home field. The seasoned defense of TB is strong, but it is also far less quick and athletic than it once was. In addition, Detroit’s defense excels at stopping the run, giving up just 3.7 yards per carry to the opposition’s running backs. Although Rashaad White and the Tampa Bay run game have much improved this season, they will face a formidable defense that takes great satisfaction in allowing opponents’ backs to get no more than 100 rush yards per game (just 87.6 ypg). This implies that there will be a lot of pressure on Mayfield and the Bucs’ pass offense, which is deemed to be “average” based on the season-long statistics, to keep the visiting team in this game. Even though I respect Mayfield and his redemption tale, Tampa Bay’s output has been constrained by strong defenses the whole season.

Although the Bucs’ victory over the Eagles was noteworthy, it was really more about their opponent’s unexpected collapse. Philadelphia last Monday night was dead. The Bucs now face a team and culture that are anything but dead when they travel to Ford Field. Detroit will be electric, Dan Campbell, the head coach, will challenge Mayfield’s moxie with his aggressive approach, and the Lions’ hyper-speed offense will be extremely difficult for opponents to handle, particularly at home. I adore the Lions, despite their far too brief season.