Another third-round pick was sent off by the 49ers on Tuesday. Tyrion Davis-Price played two seasons in San Francisco before joining the Philadelphia Eagles on a reserve/future contract. His exit serves as more evidence of a third-round pick gone bad, which is all too often in the wake of Kyle Shanahan and John Lynch. Not that selecting well in the third round is the secret to successful drafting. Finding quality players at any point in the draft is crucial, and the Shanahan-Lynch 49ers have excelled at doing just that, especially in the later rounds when they have found both reliable starters and excellent depth players. Later on Day 2, when San Francisco’s current front office has truly struggled, there is still top talent available. Consider the Davis-Price case. In the third round, he was the second running back chosen.
2017: CB Ahkello Witherspoon, 66th overall
2017: QB CJ Beathard, 104th overall
49ers seasons: three Beginnings: 12 The skinny: Beathard might have been a better quarterback on a different 49ers club, but his tendency to take hits prevented him from becoming the team’s primary quarterback.
2018: LB Fred Warner, 70th overall
Six seasons with the 49ers Commences: 98 The short story: The 49ers selected Warner in the 2018 draft, and they haven’t hit a greater home run since. He has been the league’s undisputed finest off-ball linebacker and has been selected to three Pro Bowls and First Team All-Pro teams. For the past five years, Warner has been the driving force behind an outstanding defense.
2018: DB Tarvarius Moore, 95th overall
Five seasons with the 49ers (I missed all of 2021 due to an Achilles rupture) commence: 13 The short story: Moore was selected as a free safety in the 2020 draft, but after joining the 49ers, he was switched to cornerback. Afterward, he appeared to be headed for a strong safety position after starting half of the team’s games. His entire season was ruined by an Achilles tendon tear sustained during the 2021 summer, which also prevented him from moving up the 49ers’ depth chart. When he returned to San Francisco in 2022, he mostly contributed on special teams and played just 41 defensive snaps.
2019: WR Jalen Hurd, 67th overall
49ers seasons: three Beginnings: 0 The short story: Hurd was expected to lead Shanahan’s 49ers into a new phase of position-less football. He was a large tight end in college who used to be a running back but switched to wide receiver. Although the theory was quite strong, he never played a regular-season snap for the 49ers in his three seasons with the team due to ailments to his knee and back.
2021: RB Trey Sermon, 88th overall
49ers seasons: 1; starts: 2 The short story: Sermon had chances to establish himself in the 49ers’ backfield, but his inability to play on special teams hindered him. Later in the season, an injury forced him to miss time just as he was beginning to establish himself on special teams. In his second season, he was added to the initial 53-man roster, but he was removed soon after.
2021: CB Ambry Thomas, 102nd overall
49ers seasons: three, 11 starts The brief: Thomas’s time with the 49ers has been rather unpredictable. After a successful rookie campaign in which he concluded as a starting wide receiver, he was largely ineffective in Year 2 and inconsistent in Year 3 until he solidified his position as a starting outside corner following the Week 9 bye. However, he was benched for the Super Bowl due to some postseason troubles, raising serious concerns about his future with the team.
2022: RB Tyrion Davis-Price, 93rd overall
Two seasons with the 49ers Beginnings: 0 The brief: Davis-Price experienced a mild variation of Sermon’s problem. He was not used during game days when he could have had offensive possibilities because of his incapacity to contribute on special teams. In the latter part of his second season, he was cut and signed again for the practice squad. Following Super Bowl LVIII, he signed a contract with the Eagles.
2022: WR Danny Gray, 105th overall
Two seasons with the 49ers Beginnings: 0 The skinny: In his rookie season, Gray struggled to be more for the 49ers than merely a deep threat. With a shoulder injury, Gray was placed on injured reserve following a difficult training camp. He was never activated for the entire season. As he enters his third season, his future with the team is in doubt.
2023: S Ji’Ayir Brown, 87th overall
49ers seasons played: 1 Commences: 5 The skinny: Prior to Talanoa Hufanga’s knee injury in Week 11, Brown was expected to contribute mostly on special teams during his rookie campaign. Before suffering a knee injury that kept him out of action for the final few weeks of the regular season, he started five games. In his brief time as a starter, he performed admirably, and it looks like he will play a significant role in the secondary for the team going forward.
2023: K Jake Moody, 99th overall
49ers seasons played: 1 Initiation: 0 (formally) The short story: Although Moody’s first season was arguably a little disappointing, he finished with a really strong rookie campaign that included three huge kicks in the Super Bowl that put the 49ers ahead. Even though his debut season as a professional wasn’t flawless, his skill set was intriguing.
2023: TE Cameron Latu, 101st overall
49ers seasons played: 1 Beginnings: 0 The brief: Latu was placed on injured reserve prior to the announcement of the 53-man roster, meaning he missed his whole rookie season due to a knee ailment.
The breakdown
How dire is the situation for the San Francisco 49ers when it comes to their third-round draft picks? Well, if we gauge it based on the number of games started, it’s quite concerning. Since 2017, out of a possible 174 games, the 49ers’ third-round selections have started just 115 games altogether, with Warner being the main contributor with nearly all starts since 2018. If we exclude Warner’s starts, the remaining players have only started 76 games collectively.
The situation worsens when we narrow it down to the last five years, where only eight third-round picks managed to start a total of 18 games. Moody, classified as a kicker, hasn’t contributed much in terms of starts. Beyond starts, there are other factors to consider, but it’s evident that Warner stands out as the sole player among the 12 picks who has made a significant impact. Even players like Witherspoon, Thomas, and Beathard struggled to maintain a consistent presence as starters.
However, there’s some optimism for the 49ers, as they have potential solutions within their current roster. Additionally, they possess a couple of third-round picks in the upcoming 2024 draft. Players like Gray, who is entering his third year, still have the opportunity to leave a mark. Brown is expected to secure a starting role as a safety in 2024, and Moody showed promise early on. Latu, though uncertain due to a preseason knee injury, was showing improvement. If just two of these players or 2024 draft picks can become dependable starters or contributors, it would greatly improve the outlook for the 49ers’ roster moving forward.