The Dodgers, Guardians and Brewers aren’t far behind through the season’s first two months
The official 2024 season has been underway for more than two months, but remarkably little information has emerged about how each league’s playoff situation may pan out. Twenty-five teams are either guaranteed a postseason position or within five games of one, and that number does not include the Astros, the enduring superpower that is only now making a sluggish but steady comeback after a miserable opening month.
Even though there is still a lot of ambiguity around the standings, we have enough data at this point to make some educated guesses on where these clubs are likely to go. In response, I want to consider the first sixty or so games from the perspective of a very fundamental question for this week’s power rankings: How do we feel about each team now in comparison to how we felt on Opening Day? Is it better, worse, or about the same?
Though I don’t wish to speak conclusively for all 30 MLB fan bases, please take this as my modest attempt to put myself in the supporters’ shoes of each team.
1. Yankees of New York, 43-19
Much improved.The season’s two greatest tales, the absence of reigning Cy Young winner Gerrit Cole and the possibly historic pairing of Juan Soto and Aaron Judge, have both gone about as well as anyone could have hoped. Even if they’ve been amazing, Soto and Judge raking at the same time isn’t that surprising. The rotation’s success during Cole’s absence plus the fact that Cole is almost ready to return to the team are the true reasons the Yankees are ranked #1 on this list. You may pick apart the bullpen and a few subpar performances farther down the lineup, but the record speaks for itself and the stars are putting on a show. This team is excellent, and if Cole returns looking like himself, it might grow even better.
2. Philly, Philadelphia, 43-19
Better.An offense that surely has unrealized potential has had a just mediocre first two months, but Philadelphia’s excellent pitching staff has helped make up for it, especially once it returns to full strength. Even though the schedule becomes harder in the upcoming months, Philadelphia has a great chance of winning a division title, which would be its first since 2011, because of Atlanta, its largest competitor, having had a very sluggish start.
3. Orioles of Baltimore, 39-20
Approximately the same.Following a division title and the acquisition of baseball’s best farm system in Clayton Burnes, Baltimore entered 2024 with high expectations. These expectations have mostly been met by Gunnar Henderson’s MVP-caliber leap, the team’s mostly excellent lineup surrounding him, and the Burnes-led staff, which has had enough exceptional performances from players like Kyle Bradish and Cole Irvin to weather the most recent bad injury news (Tyler Wells and John Means both require surgery). With Felix Bautista leading the way, the bullpen is still a step below what it was a year ago, but it would be inaccurate to characterize it as a clear weakness. Even though they may not be as talented as the Yankees, this squad is still among the best in baseball.
4. Dodgers of Los Angeles, 38–24
Even more so than before.While the Dodgers should still be expected to win the NL West, the quality of the supporting cast, especially with Max Muncy sidelined, has been at least somewhat concerning. It goes beyond The Big Three at the top of the lineup (four if you include standout catcher Will Smith in the cleanup spot). Though their offense is hilariously top-heavy in a way that borders on problematic, I still believe that the pitching staff, which includes Bobby Miller, Clayton Kershaw, and Brad Graterol, is among the best in baseball if/when they get healthy. The word “borderline” is important because these are real-world baseball issues.
5. Cleveland Guardians, 40–20
Better.Cleveland has withstood injuries and regression in its rotation by assembling an extraordinary bullpen that includes renowned closer Emmanuel Clase and a plethora of lesser-known funkmasters who can get outs with the best of them. This is in contrast to having an elite rotation led by Shane Bieber and an army of young yet gifted hurlers. And everything is possible when you have one of the greatest baseball players in the world, José Ramírez, on your team—even a 40-20 start with an abysmal starting rotation.What a pleasure it has been to see this team. In an effort to bolster this bunch, I’m interested to see how aggressive the Guardians become at the trade deadline.
6. Brewers of Milwaukee, 36-25
Much improved.Before we begin to believe that the Brewers are capable of winning, how many high-caliber players must they trade? Although this rotation could use a Corbin Burnes-type player right now, Joey Ortiz has been an excellent addition to the infield and a vital component of an unexpectedly potent offense led by catcher William Contreras, who was acquired in a trade that was also quite clever. It’s been fun to watch Pat Murphy lead this surprisingly good club. In terms of its capacity to contend with unexpected parts, this team has earned the benefit of the doubt, even if the paper-thin rotation turns out to be the ruin of an incredible start to the season.
7. Braves of Atlanta, 34-24
Even worse.Although Atlanta’s ranking is at its lowest point ever, there are enough concerns, even in light of the season-ending injuries to Ronald Acuña Jr. and Spencer Strider, to reduce this team’s potential and threaten its dominance of the NL East. Even without Acuña, only Marcell Ozuna has performed well in what should be one of baseball’s greatest lineups, but it seems like a matter of time until talent prevails and this bunch returns to consistently hitting pitchers. Conversely, given their past workload history, I would exercise caution in expecting Chris Sale and Rafael Lopez’s strong early performances to last the entire summer.
8. Royals of Kansas City, 36-26
Much improved. It’s incredible what Kansas City has accomplished in turning around one of baseball’s worst pitching staffs into one of the best in the league by a wide margin. Things don’t seem so bad when you factor in Bobby Witt Jr., the franchise’s face, who somehow appears to be getting better every week. The top half of this squad may be good enough to get the Royals back to the postseason far sooner than anybody could have predicted in March, even while the bottom half still looks like a team in the midst of a rebuild.
9. Mariners of Seattle, 35-27
little improved.Even though Seattle is in first place, their incredibly poor offense—which recently cost hitting coach Brant Brown his job—has been somewhat offset by their excellent beginning pitching. If the Mariners’ offensive woes weren’t there, one might be discouraged about their hopes of winning the October title. However, the team has profited significantly from Texas’s two opponents’ early struggles. As a result, the Mariners have the biggest division lead they’ve had in decades and, as we all know, Jerry Dipoto would seize the chance to move from a strong position in an attempt to strengthen the lineup on trade deadline day.
10. Twins in Minnesota, 33-27
marginally worse. After an especially chilly offensive start, it took a sausage-fueled 12-game meltdown to propel Minnesota back into the AL Central race. The Twins now have to contend with not only one well-known opponent in Cleveland but also a significantly improved competitor in Kansas City, which has abruptly turned this much-maligned division into a challenge course. The main reason for my slight pessimism about Minnesota’s first two months is that context; even with that, I still think this team has the skill to contend for a division championship. Therefore, it was quite nice to see Royce Lewis again.
11. Padres of San Diego, 32–31
Approximately the same.The Padres’ standings and rankings may indicate that I’m undervaluing San Diego, but that speaks more to the comparatively weak middle class of teams than to the team’s general caliber. Moreover, the roster’s gaps are still so obvious that it’s hard to get overly excited about what this team can accomplish in the long run. The Padres’ depth will be put to the test going forward because of the slew of injuries to important players, which is both a legitimate excuse and a problem that many strong teams are facing. We can be certain that general manager AJ Preller will keep up his proactive approach to meeting the requirements of his club, at the very least. Before next month’s trade deadline, I’m not sure Preller can top his acquisition of Luis Arraez, but I’m quite confident he’s going to try.
12. Red Sox of Boston, 30-31
Just a little bit better.The Red Sox are the only team this season that has demonstrated a stronger magnetic attraction to.500, a fitting representation of a team that alternates between appearing surprisingly formidable and resolutely mediocre. The injuries to Trevor Story and Triston Casas have partly undermined the enormous progress made on the mound, leaving Boston with a lineup that doesn’t consistently capitalize on its superior run prevention. Macroeconomically speaking, Boston’s strengthened pitching staff may herald a more realistic chance to contend as early as next season, but the Craig Breslow administration seems hesitant to fully commit to the squad as it stands. I don’t think the Sox want to win that much this year, but they are actually pretty good and might win a wild card with the appropriate deadline deals.
13. Rangers of Texas, 29–32
Even worse.The defending champions seem to be basing all of their expectations on the impending returns of their massive roster of injured starting pitchers; Max Scherzer is the player most likely to return, with Jacob deGrom and Tyler Mahle hanging around as backups later in the summer. There are still other worries, even if all those pitchers make their scheduled comeback. Specifically, despite having many of the same powerful hitters as a year ago, the Rangers’ offense hasn’t been nearly as effective as it was. Is it just a matter of time for them, similar to the group of position players in Atlanta?Or have we previously witnessed this unit operating at maximum capacity? Given Texas’ position in the standings, it is imperative that we find the answer to that issue as soon as possible.
14. Cubs of Chicago, 30-31
Approximately the same. Though the last few weeks have been awful, I won’t soon forget how this team appeared for the majority of April and how the arrivals of rookie lefty Shota Imanaga and pitcher Javier Assad increased the potential of this pitching staff. At the trade deadline, the bullpen will need to be handled in some way, but I believe this team can go higher, particularly if players like Christopher Morel and Dansby Swanson begin to develop at the plate. Although Milwaukee has clearly outperformed Chicago thus far, given their advantages in the rotation, it’s not difficult to imagine the Cubs appearing like a more evenly matched club in the latter stages of the season. Nevertheless, they have a great deal of catching up to do.
15. Tigers of Detroit, 31–30
Approximately the same. While Jack Flaherty has been a fantastic addition to the rotation and Tarik Skubal and Riley Greene have lived up to the much-deserved hype, Detroit is in a precarious position in a division that has higher standards than any of us realized due to Greene’s offensive output and some slight regression from the bullpen. Put another way, I would have guessed that the Tigers, instead of being 9.5 games behind in the AL Central, would be closer to the top if you had told me they would be.500 through 60 games. Unfortunately, Detroit still needs to improve in order to be competitive in the postseason.
16. Cardinals of St. Louis, 28–33
marginally worse. Give the Redbirds credit for persevering through a rocky first month instead of utterly losing importance, as they did the previous season. In an otherwise uneven season, Sonny Gray’s outstanding start to his Cardinals stay and Masyn Winn’s solidification as the team’s shortstop have been particularly encouraging developments. I would feel lot better about St. Louis’ chances of making some progress in the NL postseason race if it weren’t for Willson Contreras’ unexpected injury, which is likely to keep the catcher out of the field until around the All-Star break. I would love to see them as buyers at the trade deadline, but they still seem to be lacking a few things.
17. Blue Jays of Toronto, 29–31
Much worse. Sick. Although the Jays’ current standing of No. 17 may be overly optimistic given how bad things have been feeling north of the border thus far, it does tell more about the clubs below Toronto than it does about them. However, one of the season’s more puzzling narratives is this team’s failure to get into a groove despite having a lot of skill. For the moment, let’s overlook the October deficiencies; this is a team that has continued to bolster its roster while averaging 90 or more victories per season over the previous three regular seasons. For another 90-win season in 2024, a lot would need to change, and quickly.
18. Astros of Houston, 28–34
Much worse.The fact that I have Houston ranked higher than a couple clubs with fewer losses is a good indicator that the Astros have a good chance of making the AL playoffs. But let’s not pretend that they didn’t put themselves in a terrible situation or that they don’t have extremely difficult obstacles to overcome when pitching, especially in light of the most recent double-whammy of injury news that José Urquidy and Cristian Javier will need elbow surgery. It has been a difficult season in H-Town on a number of fronts, and the Astros stars will need to put out a very valiant effort to get back into the mix.
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Reds sweep Dodgers, Orioles thump White Sox, and Ronald Acuña Jr. is gone for the year.
19. Rays of Tampa Bay, 30-31
Even worse. Tampa Bay hasn’t shown any of the small-market magic that Cleveland and Milwaukee have shown this year. Using any standard or sabermetric indicator of team performance, it is evident that the Rays have not been a particularly excellent baseball team. Their run differential (-49), ERA (4.32) and OPS (.667) rank them in the bottom six of MLB, and the underlying analytics don’t indicate that they’ve had particularly bad luck on either side of the ball. Apart from Isaac Paredes, the Rays’ offense has been a complete failure, and they don’t seem to have enough magic on the mound to adequately replace every player on the IL. Still, though! Here they are, sniffing the AL wild-card mix despite hovering around.500. Nevertheless, this front office is the only one that will be open to taking a calculated risk rather than throwing everything at a club this disorganized. Come July, this sounds more like a seller than a buyer.
20. Diamondbacks in Arizona, 29–32
Even worse.If there was a different course for the Snakes, one where they didn’t make it to the postseason the previous year instead of winning a pennant, I believe we would view their 2024 campaign as being about average given their personnel. However, Arizona is held to a higher standard because of its own unexpected win in October. A second trip to October seems less and less likely as the strange sophomore slump for Colin Carroll persists and the mound injuries mount, while it’s still feasible given the disorganized wild-card situation.
21. Giants of San Francisco, 29-33
Even worse.We may praise San Francisco endlessly for their extremely forceful purchases of hot stoves. But eventually, you are your record, and even with a plethora of fresh faces on the roster and coaching staff, the Giants find themselves alarmingly close to where they were a year ago.
22. Reds of Cincinnati, 28-33
Even worse. It was a difficult start to the season for the Reds, as they lost Matt McLain, their best player overall, to shoulder surgery and Nelson Marte, their anticipated starter, to a PED ban. However, those two absences weren’t their only problems. The veterans—Jeimer Candelario, Nick Martinez, Emilio Pagán, and Frankie Montas—that Cincinnati invested a significant amount of money in this offseason to improve the floor of the team have, at best, performed ok. The pitching staff is competent but not great enough to compensate for an offense that is much below average and does very nothing at a high level save for stealing bases. Cincinnati may have enough left to compete in the NL wild-card race late in the season, but this season has been a distinctly disappointing follow-up to their unexpected 82-win record from the previous year.
23. Washington Nationals, 27–33
little improved. While there were still many unanswered questions about the potential and depth of Washington’s own pitching options, a promising, young offensive core seemed to be developing around shortstop CJ Abrams, catcher Keith Ruiz, and late-blooming outfielder Lane Thomas in the early going of the Nationals’ post-Juan Soto rebuild. That dynamic has unquestionably changed in the 2024 season, with significant advancements being made on the mound and a large portion of the position-player group either stagnating or regressing. This has made it challenging to evaluate the season thus far, but now that the Nationals can reliably record outs, I’m more optimistic about them going forward. James Wood, the Nats’ top outfield prospect, is a fascinating addition-in-waiting in the upcoming months, but he cannot remedy the team’s collective power outage by himself; in terms of SLG% and home runs, Washington is only surpassed by the White Sox.
24. Pittsburgh Pirates, 28–32
little improved. With the explosive additions of Paul Skenes and Jarred Jones, it’s not out of the question to imagine Pittsburgh fielding one of the top rotations in baseball in the not too distant future. Unfortunately, aside from the intriguing if frustrating play of enormous shortstop Oneil Cruz, there isn’t quite as much to be thrilled about on offense. In the end, the Buccos’ inability to score runs has been a major weakness in 2024, and there aren’t many clear ways to strengthen it for this season or even the one after.
35. New York Mets, 26-35.
Even worse. Maybe David Stearns always intended to ride this subpar squad until July before trading the most desirable veterans for longer-term assets. Watching a club with this much star-caliber talent struggle for the second consecutive year near the bottom of the rankings is still strange. With so much minor-league talent added at the deadline last year, New York looks to be on track for a similar July—one that might even be busier given the amount of contracts that are about to expire on this squad.
26. Athletics of Oakland, 24-38
little improved.Regarding the on-field product, Oakland has been noticeably more competitive—and watchable—than it was a year ago. This doesn’t apply to the tragic bigger context of the franchise’s impending departure from Oakland. Mason Miller is a fireballing closer who is a pitcher to watch on very few teams, which is an accomplishment in and of itself.
27. Los Angeles Angels, 23–38.
Much worse.Any comfort found in having Mike Trout around following Shohei Ohtani’s departure to join the Dodgers was swiftly dashed when Trout injured his meniscus early in May, and things have only gotten worse from then on out. Ron Washington, the new manager, is limited in what he can accomplish with a roster that is so terribly lacking. The difficulty of envisioning a better future while ignoring the present is even more depressing: the farm system has been rendered barren by poor drafting, mediocre development, and a string of win-now deals that resulted in no wins, as evidenced by the minor-league records.
28. Miami Marlins, 21–40
Even worse. We weren’t positive on Opening Day that Miami was going to undergo a significant rebuild in 2024, unlike with the White Sox, especially after a trip to October. After the Marlins’ dismal start, that quickly changed. The trade of Luis Arraez initiated what is anticipated to be yet another significant sell-off, an all too familiar pattern for this team. It may be the best course of action in the long run, but it doesn’t exactly uplift the fan base.
29. Colorado Rockies, 21–39
Approximately the same. The Rockies were ranked as the worst baseball club by almost all projection systems, and they haven’t done anything to change that other than not being the White Sox. Both the pitching staff and the offense are in the bottom three spots. This is hardly surprising because aside from a breakout year for Ryan McMahon and promising play from 22-year-old shortstop Ezequiel Tovar, there isn’t much to get thrilled about.
30. Chicago White Sox, 15–46
Much worse. No one expected this team to be good, given the stated intentions (and subsequent transactions) indicating a rebuild, but regardless of the organizational plan in the long run, being on track to be worse than the 2003 Tigers is a bitter pill to swallow, especially when the losing tide isn’t even enough to earn this team a pick at the top of the 2025 MLB Draft. The pitching staff of Double-A Birmingham is one example of some hopeful trends on the farm, but not nearly enough to give the impression that the big-league squad will be winning anything anytime soon.
