NFL playoffs: Four things to watch for in Packers-49ers in NFC Divisional Round
For the second time in three years, the Green Bay Packers and San Francisco 49ers will square off in the Divisional Round of the NFC playoffs, but this encounter will look very different from the first.
Behind Brock Purdy and a prolific offense, the 49ers emerged as the conference’s best club, securing the top seed and home-field advantage.
Similar to the Niners two years prior, the Packers of this year surreptitiously qualified for the playoffs in Week 18 and defeated the Dallas Cowboys on the road in the previous week to get here. However, since Jordan Love took over, Green Bay’s offense has improved and will provide a formidable challenge in the game on Saturday night in Santa Clara.
Although Purdy was ending his undergraduate career at Iowa State and Love was supporting Aaron Rodgers, neither player was starting for their respective teams two years ago. However, both have performed incredibly well in the latter part of the season.
Love has actually outperformed Purdy’s output since Week 11 (including the playoffs) in terms of completion percentage (70.7% to 70.1%) and TD-to-INT ratio (21-1 to 16-6), with Purdy surpassing Love in terms of yards per game (278.7 to 269.1).
Love’s career trajectory has changed as a result of the Packers’ amazing ascent following the team’s 2–5 start. Despite a few tough moments, Purdy has also allayed skeptics since taking over late in the 2022 campaign and returning from offseason elbow surgery.
San Francisco has won five of the nine postseason meetings between the Packers and 49ers, including the last four playoff encounters. The meetings have taken place since the 1995 season. In the postseason, Kyle Shanahan is 2-0 versus the Packers of Matt LaFleur.
The Packers enter Levi’s Stadium with a level of confidence that well exceeds their placement, even though this will be the first-ever NFL playoff matchup between the No. 1 and No. 7 teams.
When the Packers play the 49ers on Saturday in the Divisional Round, keep an eye out for the following four situations:
Is Jordan Love capable of handling the 49ers’ defense? For the Packers, Love’s rise in the second part of the season has been nothing short of extraordinary. They would be sitting at home right now without it. Love, who was raised in Bakersfield, California, is returning to lead one of the league’s most explosive attacks. Since Week 11, he’s led the NFL in offensive touchdowns (23), and he’s had an amazing 21-1 TD-INT ratio.
However, it seems that his strengths and the 49ers’ defensive prowess are mutually exclusive. Despite getting 18 sacks in his first nine games, Love has only taken 11 sacks since Week 11, when the 49ers took the lead in the NFL with 30 sacks.
Love has also been very successful on money downs; this season, including in the playoffs, he led the NFL with 17 passing touchdowns and 19 offensive touchdowns on third and fourth downs.
The 49ers, who were tied for the NFL lead in picks with 22, also happened to have the most third- and fourth-down sacks with 25, as well as the most third- and fourth-down interceptions this season with nine. With an additional layoff, the 49ers defense is also getting healthier.
Safety Ji’Ayir Brown and defensive lineman Arik Armstead will be returning after recent absences, while linebacker Dre Greenlaw is doubtful to participate. Only one team all season threw for more than 300 yards against San Francisco (the Vikings in Week 7), but the unit was bruised up in the final stretch, as evidenced in games like the home defeat to the Ravens in Week 16. Can Love handle the formidable coverage unit led by Charvarius Ward and the 49ers’ pass rush, which is anchored by Nick Bosa? On Saturday, anything approaching the caliber that Love has been putting up in his last few games would be deemed a huge success.
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2) The playmakers for the 49ers are dangerous and well-rested. Flowers are in order for Packers defensive coordinator Joe Barry; however, there’s a catch: he got his team to play some of its best in recent games. Two things about this defense: first, despite its successes and setbacks, Barry’s defense allowed more than 500 yards last week, opening the room for an unlikely comeback. Second, the defense did not perform well against the Cowboys.
In any case, the 49ers are anticipated to have a largely healthy bunch of skill-position weapons, including what is maybe the best quintet of playmakers in the NFL, so that group will have its hands full. With the league’s 28th-ranked run defense, Christian McCaffrey, who injured his calf in Week 17 and missed the meaningless regular-season finale, should be prepared for a heavy workload. Assuming Purdy has enough time to throw, wideouts Deebo Samuel, Brandon Aiyuk, and tight end George Kittle are all ready to go and can put Green Bay under pressure in different ways.
Shanahan enjoys taking first-down shots, so this could be the ideal opportunity to do so. Next Gen Stats indicates that in 2023, the Packers’ defensive success rate against the pass on first downs was a league-low 43.7%. Barry couldn’t win by game planning to stop one of those four receivers, even in the middle of the game, because the Niners can easily target any of those four in the passing game, and none of them had more than nine receptions in a game this season.
He will need to hope that his squad can cause turnovers, stop huge chunk plays on early downs, and make good tackles. But the task is made even more difficult by the 49ers’ skill players’ lack of rest.
3) Aaron Jones might be the 49ers’ most difficult opponent.It will be difficult to stop Love and Green Bay’s group of rookie receivers.
However, Jones has returned from injury and leads the NFL in rush yards (476 since Week 16), so the Niners now have to deal with him as well. Jones was a decent receiver early in the season, but he wasn’t producing much on the ground. That storyline has changed after a six-week hiatus, and the Packers’ offense has significantly improved.
The offensive line for Green Bay has performed admirably, particularly when it comes to second-level blocks and efficiently obtaining space. Conversely, the 49ers’ inability to stop the run this season has been a result of their defensive inferiority, which has frequently forced them to use lighter boxes (six or fewer players in the box on 69.6% of plays this season, which is seventh-highest, per NGS). Since Week 15, Jones has also flourished against lighter boxes, accumulating 31 carries for an incredible 228 yards.
It would be surprising if he didn’t have a similar amount of carries in this game, given that he has had more than 20 in each of the last four games. Doing so could help keep the Packers defense off the field. Can the 49ers stop Jones before he gets going and tackle as well as they have for the majority of the season? Many defenders have recently returned to practice, which suggests that the defense will be in better shape and have more depth for this matchup.
4) Purdy needs to steer clear of a Ravens game repeat. This season, Purdy has been excellent for the most part; at one point, he even led the MVP conversation. It’s not shocking given the array of weaponry at his disposal, yet Purdy has typically kept the trains operating efficiently and on schedule.
But in a few games this season, particularly the one against the Ravens, he appeared flustered and unproductive. He was pressured on 47.1% of his dropbacks, sacked twice, and intercepted four times in the Week 16 encounter. The strategy employed by Baltimore wasn’t particularly complex; it was largely sitting back in zones (many quarters and quarter-quarter-half), applying constant pressure to Purdy with four rushers, and closing quickly on his initial reads.
The Packers can use a lot of the Ravens’ game plan in this one because they have a defensive strategy that is somewhat similar. Although Green Bay’s pass rush may not be as strong as Baltimore’s, the team had more success getting to quarterbacks in the final stages of the game after two five-sack performances in Weeks 15 and 18.
The Packers’ secondary has some gaps that might not be fully filled unless they have a strong pass rush. However, they should exercise caution in how many single-safety glances they direct at him. Purdy performed exceptionally well this season against those defensive looks, averaging 10.0 yards per attempt; Lamar Jackson had the next-highest average in the NFL against one-high defense, at 8.8.