The Browns are the clear favorite to win their first postseason match since 1994.
The Cleveland Browns are in new terrain in the best conceivable way.
After a 17-year playoff drought from 2003 to 2019, the perennially disappointing NFL team is making its second postseason appearance since 2020. It is one of just four teams, along with the Detroit Lions, Jacksonville Jaguars, and Houston Texans, to have never played in a Super Bowl.
This has led to the unexpected but certainly not surprising betting statistic that Cleveland has never been a road playoff favorite in the Super Bowl era through 12 qualifying games.
That all changes on Saturday as the Browns, according to ESPN BET odds, visit NRG Stadium in Houston as 2-point favorites. In 1994, Bill Belichick’s solitary postseason victory as the head coach of the Cleveland Browns came from a game against the New England Patriots in the wild-card round. That was the last time Cleveland was favored in a playoff game of any kind.
Sportsbooks don’t place a lot of weight on Cleveland’s dismal January history.
We do not believe that history influences linemaking. “We focus on the two teams, their current lineups, and their construction,” Johnny Avello, head of race and sports operations at DraftKings, said to ESPN.
“The favorites should be the Browns. Their defense is among the finest in the league, and they have slightly more experience and a slightly higher power ranking. Here, though, they lack home-field advantage. They very likely would have been a 4- or 5-point favorite if they had been playing at home.”
Divergent views exist regarding the appropriateness of the line given the circumstances; Caesars Sportsbook’s oddsmakers, for instance, placed the game between a pick ’em and Browns -3. The majority of books had a line that started at Cleveland -1.5 but swiftly moved up to -3 before leveling out at -2 or -2.5 across the board.
The market is obviously buying into the Browns’ redemption narrative. Data from FanDuel, Caesars, BetMGM, and PointsBet indicates that, in order to cover the spread, Cleveland must receive, at the very least, 65% of the tickets and 66% of the handle; at the very most, it must receive 80% of the bets and 84% of the money. Houston is not one of the top three teams to win straight up on DraftKings; the teams with the most tickets are the Steelers (+400), Rams (+140), and Packers (+275).
Caesars reports a wager of $145,000 to win $100,000 on the Browns money line at -145. Furthermore, according to DraftKings and BetMGM, the Browns vs. Texans game is the most bet of the weekend thus far. Cleveland is the club that is most wagered on and handled in some form at both books (although it’s important to remember that this is the first postseason game).
The excitement around the Browns has not only been widespread in Ohio, where sports betting has been legalized for just over a year, but it has also spread to other parts of the nation.
According to Brian Becker, vice president of marketing at Tipico, “betting on local teams is higher in Cleveland and the other cities in the state, implying that bettors in Cleveland and throughout Ohio mix their fandom into their wagering activity more than those in other states.”
Avello remarked, “They’re almost like America’s squad in a manner.” The squad has received support. by all of them? No, but those who are supporting them, for whatever reason, feel bad for them.”
Putting aside sentimental feelings, it might be justified: with Joe Flacco starting as quarterback, the Browns have covered six straight games as favorites and are 4-0 against the spread. BetMGM says that a league-leading 14% of tickets are on Flacco to lead the playoffs in passing yards at 12-to-1 odds, indicating that the veteran’s redemption story is also finding traction in the props market.
A FanDuel trader stated, “The public expects this to continue as a Texans win would be beneficial for the trading team.” “Joe Flacco’s resurgence has been a key storyline the back half of the NFL season.”
Cleveland might cause some havoc for the books if it can live up to the hype and advance: More wagers on the Browns to win the AFC have been accepted by DraftKings since Sunday than any other team.
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